Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 5 brokers · 301 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-13.
Retail drives sales growth of about 6% in FY-2027, up from about 2% in FY-2026
Retail is modeled up about 10% in FY-2027 against roughly 2% for Food service, widening its lead as the larger segment. Within Retail the step-up concentrates in shelf-stable dressings, sauces and croutons; frozen bread contributes, and refrigerated dressings adds little. In Food service, dressings and sauces carries what little growth there is.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net sales | $1.89bn | $1.92bn | $2.04bn | $2.09bn | +6.2% | 5 |
| By segment | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net sales - Retail | $1.00bn | $1.01bn | $1.11bn | $1.14bn | +9.9% | 5 |
| Net sales - Food service | $890.08m | $915.12m | $929.11m | $947.13m | +1.5% | 5 |
| Retail mix | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net sales - Retail - Shelf-stable dressings, sauces and croutons | — | $415.95m | $460.80m | $536.34m | +10.8% | 3 |
| Net sales - Retail - Frozen bread | — | $402.93m | $422.74m | $414.53m | +4.9% | 3 |
| Net sales - Retail - Refrigerated dressings, dips and other | — | $190.13m | $196.94m | $193.96m | +3.6% | 3 |
| Food service mix | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net sales - Food service - Dressing and sauces | — | $679.33m | $697.20m | $708.71m | +2.6% | 3 |
| Net sales - Food service - Frozen breads and other | — | $229.67m | $231.17m | $238.43m | +0.7% | 3 |
Where broker models disagree
Brokers cluster tightly on total FY-2027 sales yet split materially on this single Retail line. Food service operating income and free cash flow carry the next-widest spreads, each resting on three brokers.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales - Retail - Shelf-stable dressings, sauces and croutons | FY-2027E | $450.07m | $430.84m–$485.40m | $411.61m–$520.73m | 3 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Food service | FY-2027E | $110.24m | $108.04m–$115.43m | $105.83m–$120.63m | 3 |
| Net sales - Retail - Frozen bread | FY-2027E | $425.01m | $416.80m–$429.82m | $408.60m–$434.63m | 3 |
| Free cash flow (FCF) | FY-2027E | $199.83m | $195.95m–$214.49m | $192.07m–$229.15m | 3 |
Gross margin is modeled higher in every FY-2027 quarter, and brokers barely differ
The broker spread on quarterly gross margin runs to a few tenths of a point, so the margin path is not where positions differ. The two segment margin rows rest on two to three brokers each and read as a sketch rather than a consensus.
| Line | 1QFY-2026A | 2QFY-2026A | 3QFY-2026A | 4QFY-2026A | 1QFY-2027E | 2QFY-2027E | 3QFY-2027E | 4QFY-2027E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin(%) | 24.2% | 26.5% | 23.8% | 23.5% | 25.0% | 27.5% | 24.2% | 24.0% | 5 |
| Operating margin(%) | 12.4% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 5 |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 15.6% | 18.0% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 5 |
| By segment | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin - Retail(%) | 22.0% | 22.3% | 19.2% | 20.9% | 21.1% | 22.8% | 19.8% | 20.2% | 3 |
| Operating margin - Food service(%) | 12.7% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 3 |
Bachan's is one broker's line: $15M in FY-2026 stepping to $100M in FY-2027
One broker breaks Bachan's out inside Retail at $15M in FY-2026, stepping to $100M in FY-2027; no other model in this set carries the line, so it is one analyst's view rather than a consensus. A second single-broker line puts Winland Foods TSA revenue in Food service at $20.4M in FY-2026 and nothing after that.
Thin coverage: five brokers at most, one on FY-2028
Five brokers is the maximum on any line here; the FY-2027 segment and product rows rest on three, quarterly product splits on two, and the whole FY-2028 column on one. Most forward rows were last revised on 2026-05-06, though a minority were refreshed on 2026-07-13, close to the 2026-07-17 consensus update. Product-level detail does not exist before FY-2026, so there is no history to anchor the mix.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.